Celtic lead Premiership as Hearts face challenge to keep title race alive

SPAIN | 31-10-2026 : Celtic lead Rangers by four points and Hearts by eight after the first 11 matches of the Scottish Premiership season, with BBC Sport’s assessment of the opening round highlighting the obstacles facing another sustained title challenge from outside the Old Firm.

Every team has now played each other following Wednesday’s full programme of fixtures. Although the 38-game campaign remains at an early stage, BBC Sport reported that in two of the previous three seasons, the clubs occupying the top six at this point ultimately retained those places.

Hearts strong at home but facing obstacles

Hearts sit third under Wouter Vrancken following a substantial summer rebuild. Their start follows a season in which, according to BBC Sport, they came within minutes of becoming the first club outside Celtic and Rangers to win the league since 1985.

Only Celtic have scored more league goals this season. Hearts have also extended their unbeaten league sequence at Tynecastle to 26 matches, a run stretching back to April 2025, with convincing home victories over Dundee United and St Mirren among their results.

However, Wednesday’s 2-2 home draw against Rangers left them four points behind their opponents. BBC Sport assessed the match as a missed opportunity for Hearts, reporting that their injury-hit squad was exposed late in the contest.

Those absences, European commitments and inconsistent away performances complicate their pursuit of the leading pair. Their results on the road include a 7-1 defeat at Celtic Park, and they remain closer on points to fourth-placed Dundee than to Rangers.

Old Firm advantage reflected in performance

Despite reservations among supporters of both clubs, BBC Sport reported that Celtic and Rangers occupy the leading two positions across several performance measures, including expected goals for and against, shots on target per match and chances created.

They are also the only Premiership teams conceding fewer than one goal per game on average. Celtic’s current points rate would take them beyond 90 points, compared with the 82 that secured last season’s championship. Rangers, meanwhile, have no European fixtures this season.

Kilmarnock vulnerable as top-six contest tightens

At the other end, Kilmarnock are bottom, level on points with Hibernian and one behind Motherwell. BBC Sport reported that bookmakers consider Neil McCann’s team the favourites for automatic relegation, with their defensive record a particular concern.

Kilmarnock have conceded 26 goals in 11 matches and share the division’s lowest goals-scored total. According to BBC Sport, only twice in the previous 10 seasons has the team with the worst defensive record avoided finishing bottom. McCann has appealed for patience from supporters.

The wider contest remains close: just six points separate Dundee in fourth from Aberdeen in ninth. BBC Sport’s analysis of expected points, based on chances created and conceded, places Hibernian seven points below their projected return and Motherwell six below theirs.

Falkirk and Dundee, by contrast, have collected four and three points more respectively than that measure suggests. BBC Sport noted that chance conversion separates those clubs: Hibernian and Motherwell rank in the bottom three for shot conversion, while Dundee and Falkirk are in the top four. It also cautioned that statistical measures do not capture qualities such as team spirit and work-rate.

Sources: BBC Sport.